Today: TEX Prospect Justin Smoak
Justin Smoak is a powerful switch-hitting first baseman recently signed by the Texas Rangers, who made him their first round pick (9th overall) in the 2008 first year player draft.
One of five hard-hitting first basemen who went in the first round, Smoak is generally regarded as the best of the crop defensively, which suggests that Texas sees him as a long-term first baseman rather than a DH or corner outfield bat.
A native of South Carolina, Smoak played high school ball alongside catching prospect Matt Weiters, now with Baltimore, who was a first round pick from last year's draft. As a college player, he stumbled through a poor performance with Team USA (.223 average) but excelled in his final year at South Carolina. hitting .383 with 23 homers as a junior.
His glove is very good, and he exhibits good footwork around the bag. He's a big boy, but not so large that he'll be a liability on the bases. He should be able to grow into his frame and add additional strength without becoming muscle-bound. His speed is average, and he has a good mind for baserunning and playing the game's nuances.
Smoak may struggle with high-level pitching for awhile. While his fast wrists can compensate for his long swing on all but the very best of fastballs, off-speed pitches and breaking balls away can make him flail and look foolish from time to time, especially from the right side of the plate, from which he's more prone to chase in general. His power is legitimate, though most of it comes from his long swing pulling balls into the corner. He's not a real threat to hit for high average, but unlike many power hitters, he's not ashamed to take a walk, so his OBP should stay respectable as he moves up the Texas system.
He should rise quickly through the minors, especially the lower leagues where his bat is more advanced than most of the pitching he'll encounter. Expect a hiccup or two at high or double-A, though. How he adjusts to better breaking pitches will determine whether he blossoms into the next Mark Teixeira or settles into a Jack Custish role as an all-or-nothing hitter.
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